Investment Thesis Portfolio

Research-driven theses across public and private markets, presented as live case studies that highlight conviction, process, and positioning.

About Luke

USC Marshall graduate in finance and accounting with experience across private wealth, auditing, and global operations roles. I pursue technology-driven investments, synthesize insights from operators and domain experts, and use this site to share the research and decision-making behind my theses.

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Current Ideas & Positions

Meta Platforms

META

Active Position

Meta is turning WhatsApp and Instagram into a closed-loop payments network. Every in-app checkout starts to look like Visa swipe revenue layered on top of ads—advertising drives discovery, payments capture the transaction, and Meta keeps the whole flywheel inside its apps.

Cost Basis
$693.10
Entry Date
Nov 20, 2025
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Cloudflare

NET

Watchlist

Cloudflare has become essential internet infrastructure—their verification challenges and security services appear on virtually every website, making them the default layer between users and the internet. As websites need DDoS protection, CDN services, and security, Cloudflare sits at the intersection of traffic, becoming the infrastructure that powers the web. When every site needs protection and performance, and Cloudflare is the default choice, they capture value as the platform that enables the modern internet.

Entry Date
Nov 14, 2025
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Roblox

RBLX

Watchlist

Roblox is the digital Burning Man—an always-on carnival built by its own community. User-generated content means every world, quest, and virtual good comes from creators, not a studio. That keeps fresh supply flowing, feeds the Robux economy, and gives Roblox operating leverage as it scales. If they march toward a billion participants, you’re looking at a self-funding marketplace that could justify a much larger equity value.

Entry Date
Nov 12, 2025
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Financials

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Banks are finally getting paid for their balance sheets again. Rates are stable, credit losses are calm, and regional M&A is about to light up the tape.

Entry Date
Nov 7, 2025
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ASML

ASML

Active Position

ASML is the only producer of machines needed for cutting-edge chips, so most of Europe's semiconductor ambitions depend on their technology. When policymakers consistently reference your technology as a matter of national security, you've moved beyond normal business dynamics. Everyone needs the bridge, and ASML is the only one that can build it—even if the world watches every move.

Cost Basis
$978.82
Entry Date
Oct 13, 2025
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Figma

FIG

Active Position

Figma sits at an inflection point in software: while Adobe built design tools for individuals, Figma reimagined them for how teams actually work—collaborative, web-native, and integrated into modern workflows. The bet isn't that Figma will take market share; it's that they've redefined the category. When the next generation of designers grows up on Figma, the question shifts from "should we switch" to "why would we use anything else?"

Cost Basis
$70.30
Entry Date
Oct 8, 2025
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Reddit

RDDT

Active Position

Reddit is one of the most visited sites globally with over 1.3 billion monthly users, yet it’s often overlooked. The bet isn’t about user growth; it’s about monetizing an underutilized asset. With 100,000+ active communities generating authentic conversations, Reddit has become essential infrastructure for how people discover information. As AI companies need high-quality training data, Reddit’s trove of real human discourse becomes increasingly valuable—the conversations happening here are the data that trains the models everyone uses. When a platform reaches this level of embeddedness but remains under-monetized, the opportunity is about capturing value that’s already there.

Cost Basis
$201.43
Entry Date
Oct 2, 2025
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Alphabet

GOOGL

Active Position

Google is rebuilding search and YouTube with GenAI, keeping ad slots scarce and pricing power intact. YouTube acts like the only network that matters—it captured the shift from linear TV to streaming with billions of hours of watch time, creator economy at scale, and engaged audiences with measurable results traditional TV can't match. This flywheel funds disciplined bets in Cloud and AI tooling, enabling Google to compete in infrastructure while others struggle to fund AI investments.

Cost Basis
$191.36
Entry Date
Oct 2, 2025
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VANECK Alternative Asset Manager ETF

GPZ

Active Position

The VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF lets you access alternative asset managers without the constraints of SAFEs or private placements. Those require accredited investor status, lock up capital for years, and limit diversification—this bypasses those barriers while capturing the economics of firms that manage private capital. When access to alternatives is valuable but hard to reach directly, owning the managers who control the capital flows becomes a compelling proxy.

Cost Basis
$27.59
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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BYD Company LTD

BYDDY

Active Position

BYD benefits from China's renewable energy infrastructure, but from a different angle: as a vertically integrated EV and battery manufacturer, they capture value across the entire electric mobility value chain. While others buy batteries and components, BYD manufactures them—giving them cost advantages and supply chain control that become more valuable as the energy transition accelerates. The bet isn't just about China's grid; it's about owning the manufacturing capabilities that turn cheap energy into competitive products.

Cost Basis
$13.85
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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Baidu

BIDU

Active Position

China's solar build-out now produces more power than U.S. solar and nuclear combined—a shift that changes the economics of compute-intensive businesses. Baidu's AI cloud and robotaxi operations benefit from this grid expansion: cheap renewable energy enables cost-competitive cloud services, while electric robotaxis gain from cleaner, more abundant power. When energy infrastructure becomes a competitive advantage, companies positioned to leverage that infrastructure—rather than fight against it—capture outsized benefits.

Cost Basis
$97.39
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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CoreWeave

CRWV

Watchlist

Avoid CoreWeave: it’s a short-term play built on hardware that likely won’t last. They’ve loaded up on GPUs to capture current AI demand, but that hardware advantage is eroding fast. GPU rental prices have fallen sharply (H100 chips dropped from $5–6/hour to around 75 cents within a year), and newer architectures offer far more performance. CoreWeave’s core asset—a massive GPU fleet—may be largely obsolete in 5 years as technology shifts toward more efficient, specialized chips. When your entire business model depends on hardware that depreciates this quickly, you’re betting against the pace of innovation.

Entry Date
Aug 11, 2025
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Enbridge

ENB

Watchlist

Enbridge offers current income through its MLP-like structure despite predictions the structure would change. Energy infrastructure has shown resilience, and the predictable cash flows from pipelines and energy transportation remain valuable. The structure continues to work for income-focused investors, while the underlying energy assets provide a durable foundation. When everyone expects structural change and it doesn't materialize, you get mispriced income streams that persist.

Entry Date
Aug 11, 2025
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Bitmine Immersion Technologies

BMNR

Watchlist

Bitmine owns a meaningful Ethereum stack, and Chairman Tom Lee is steering it to run both Ethereum staking nodes and Bitcoin miners in its immersion-cooled pods. Ethereum's proof-of-stake shift created staking yields, and as tokenization grows, Ethereum becomes preferred infrastructure—Bitmine's staking captures that while maintaining Bitcoin mining. When crypto or AI workloads spike, their low-power chassis puts them at the front of the line.

Entry Date
Aug 5, 2025
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Elbit Systems

ESLT

Watchlist

Elbit Systems' advantage is vertical integration—they build the entire defense stack from sensors to platforms to command systems, creating integrated solutions rather than selling components. The moonshot is the shift to autonomous warfare: as conflicts move toward unmanned systems and AI-driven operations, Elbit's ability to deliver complete integrated systems—not just parts—positions them to capture more value. When defense procurement shifts from buying individual components to buying complete autonomous systems, companies that can deliver the full stack become essential partners.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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NextVision Stabilized Systems

NXSN.TA

Watchlist

NextVision Stabilized Systems' advantage is their specialization in stabilized imaging and sensor systems—the critical component that makes drones, surveillance, and targeting systems effective. As warfare shifts toward precision autonomous systems and AI-driven targeting, the quality of stabilized sensors becomes the bottleneck. When every drone, vehicle, and platform needs precision stabilization to enable AI vision and targeting, companies that master this specific technology become essential suppliers to the entire defense ecosystem—not just one platform, but every platform that needs to see and aim accurately.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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Israel Defense Tech

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Israel Defense Tech is unique because it's battle-tested in real conflicts—systems proven under fire, not in simulations. Drones, cybersecurity, and AI systems that work in actual warfare get exported globally, and dual-use technologies transition from defense to commercial markets. When defense tech is validated in combat and becomes the standard for how conflicts are fought, you're investing in the infrastructure of modern warfare.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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NVIDIA

NVDA

Exit

This was one of my best learning experiences—the first time I touched the stove. I tried to predict short-term geopolitical events when Iran-Israel tensions escalated and there was talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut 30% of the world's oil supply. I learned I'm not an oracle of the market, and short-term events—especially geopolitical ones—are nearly impossible to predict with any consistency. The better approach is focusing on long-term fundamentals: companies with durable competitive advantages, structural shifts in industries, and trends that play out over years, not weeks.

Cost Basis
$112.84
Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
Exit Price
$142.47
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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SK Hynix

000660.KS (Korea Exchange)

Watchlist

Memory is the future because AI workloads are memory-intensive, and as models grow, memory becomes the bottleneck—not compute. SK Hynix sits at the center of this shift: their HBM and DRAM are essential for training and inference, and the AI boom has created structural demand that goes beyond cyclical patterns. When every major tech company is racing to build AI infrastructure, memory isn't optional—it's the foundation. We're likely in a new cycle where memory demand is driven by a permanent shift in how computing works, not just temporary supply constraints.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Micron Technology

MU

Watchlist

Memory is the future because AI workloads are memory-intensive, and as models grow, memory becomes the bottleneck—not compute. Micron sits at the center of this shift: their HBM and DRAM are essential for training and inference, and the AI boom has created structural demand that goes beyond cyclical patterns. When every major tech company is racing to build AI infrastructure, memory isn't optional—it's the foundation. We're likely in a new cycle where memory demand is driven by a permanent shift in how computing works, not just temporary supply constraints.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Energy

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Energy will be the constraint for AI: compute-intensive workloads require massive power, and as AI scales, energy becomes the bottleneck—not just technology. The companies racing to build AI infrastructure are competing for limited energy capacity, and those with access to cheap, abundant power gain a structural advantage. When data centers consume as much energy as entire cities and AI demand keeps growing, energy isn't optional—it's the foundation. We're likely seeing a permanent shift where energy infrastructure determines which regions and companies can compete in AI, not just who has the best chips.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Electricity

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Electric utilities sit at the core of AI infrastructure: data centers require large amounts of power delivered through the grid, and as AI scales, transmission and distribution capacity becomes the constraint. Regulated utility companies own and operate the electrical infrastructure that powers AI data centers—the transmission lines, distribution networks, and grid capacity that determines where AI can be built. When every new data center needs grid connections and power delivery, utilities become essential infrastructure. As AI demand grows, these companies can invest in grid expansion and earn returns through the regulated rate base, capturing value as power demand shifts from traditional uses to compute-intensive workloads.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Vertiv

VRT

Exit

This was part of the same learning experience as NVIDIA—selling out of nervousness during the Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions. When tensions escalated and there was talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut 30% of the world's oil supply, I got nervous and sold Vertiv along with Vistra and NVIDIA. I learned I'm not an oracle of the market, and short-term events—especially geopolitical ones—are nearly impossible to predict with any consistency. The better approach is focusing on long-term fundamentals: companies with durable competitive advantages, structural shifts in industries, and trends that play out over years, not weeks. This portfolio documents both successes and mistakes—lessons learned along the way.

Cost Basis
$103.70
Entry Date
Jan 27, 2025
Exit Price
$110.77
Exit Date
Jul 13, 2025
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Vistra

VST

Exit

This was part of the same learning experience as NVIDIA—selling out of nervousness during the Iran-Israel geopolitical tensions. When tensions escalated and there was talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut 30% of the world's oil supply, I got nervous and sold Vistra along with Vertiv and NVIDIA. I learned I'm not an oracle of the market, and short-term events—especially geopolitical ones—are nearly impossible to predict with any consistency. The better approach is focusing on long-term fundamentals: companies with durable competitive advantages, structural shifts in industries, and trends that play out over years, not weeks. This portfolio documents both successes and mistakes—lessons learned along the way.

Cost Basis
$136.95
Entry Date
Jan 27, 2025
Exit Price
$171.65
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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Palo Alto Networks

PANW

Took Loss On

Sold at a loss to capture the tax benefit and redeploy capital into better opportunities. Rather than wait for recovery, I took the loss to offset gains and moved capital to more compelling positions.

Cost Basis
$193.28
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
Exit Price
$190.61
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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China Large Cap

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

China Large Cap benefits from the AI infrastructure shift: the country's manufacturing capabilities, energy infrastructure, and semiconductor ecosystem position it to capture value as AI scales. China's solar buildout, vertical integration in batteries and EVs, and semiconductor investments create structural advantages. While U.S. companies dominate high-end AI chips, China's large cap companies control manufacturing, energy generation, and supply chains at scale. With lower P/E ratios compared to U.S. peers, you get exposure to similar themes at more attractive valuations.

Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Invesco QQQ

QQQ

Active Position

QQQ gives broad exposure to the tech companies driving the AI shift—semiconductors, cloud, and software. Rather than picking individual names, you get the NASDAQ-100, companies positioned to benefit as AI scales. It’s a simple way to ride the wave without betting on a single company.

Cost Basis
$505.18
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

IBIT

Active Position

Bitcoin is becoming programmable money for the AI age. As AI agents and autonomous systems proliferate, they need a monetary layer that's programmable—settlement that's final, global, and permissionless. Bitcoin's network effect creates a new infrastructure layer: money that AI can use, that exists on the internet, and that operates as reliably as TCP/IP. The iShares Bitcoin Trust provides exposure to what's evolving from a speculative asset into the monetary infrastructure for autonomous agents and global payments. This isn't about digital gold—it's about money becoming a protocol.

Cost Basis
$56.61
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Broadcom

AVGO

Took Loss On

Sold to buy more Nvidia.

Cost Basis
$186.78
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
Exit Price
$180.86
Exit Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Amazon

AMZN

Active Position

AWS is the AI utility, and Amazon Robotics is becoming the warehouse supplier for everyone else. They'll ship robots to third parties and run them in their own network—two cash engines feeding each other. AWS provides compute for AI workloads; Amazon Robotics leverages fulfillment automation. As logistics automate, Amazon monetizes both infrastructure and robots, creating dual revenue streams.

Cost Basis
$197.63
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Information Technology

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

The margins here are still ridiculous—software and cloud giants keep pulling more profit out of every dollar, and their earnings runs are what’s carrying the market. Until that margin story cracks, this stays the cleanest way to ride the upside.

Entry Date
Nov 4, 2024
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