Investment Thesis Portfolio

Research-driven theses across public and private markets, presented as live case studies that highlight conviction, process, and positioning.

About Luke

USC Marshall graduate in finance and accounting with experience across private wealth, auditing, and global operations roles. I pursue technology-driven investments, synthesize insights from operators and domain experts, and use this site to share the research and decision-making behind my theses.

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Current Ideas & Positions

Meta Platforms

META

Active Position

Meta is turning WhatsApp and Instagram into a closed-loop payments network. Every in-app checkout starts to look like Visa swipe revenue layered on top of ads—advertising drives discovery, payments capture the transaction, and Meta keeps the whole flywheel inside its apps. With 3.3 billion daily active users across the family of apps, even small monetization improvements per user create massive incremental revenue.

Cost Basis
$693.10
Entry Date
Nov 20, 2025
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Cloudflare

NET

Watchlist

Cloudflare sits between users and the internet. Their security and CDN services are embedded in virtually every website, making them default infrastructure for the modern web. As traffic scales and threats multiply, Cloudflare captures value at the network layer—where switching costs are high and the alternative is building it yourself.

Entry Date
Nov 14, 2025
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Roblox

RBLX

Watchlist

Roblox is the digital playground for an entire generation—an always-on platform built by its own community. User-generated content means every world, game, and experience is created at zero cost to Roblox while they take a cut of every transaction. The bet isn't on user growth; it's on monetization per user rising as the platform matures and brands pour money into virtual experiences to reach Gen Alpha where they actually spend time.

Entry Date
Nov 12, 2025
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Financials

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Banks are finally getting paid for their balance sheets. Rates are stable, credit losses are calm, and regional M&A is about to accelerate. The sector trades at compressed multiples despite improving fundamentals—net interest margins are expanding, fee income is recovering, and capital return programs are ramping. Financials are a value play with a macro tailwind.

Entry Date
Nov 7, 2025
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ASML

ASML

Active Position

ASML is the only company on earth that makes the EUV lithography machines needed for cutting-edge chips. Every advanced semiconductor—from NVIDIA GPUs to Apple silicon—requires ASML's equipment to manufacture. This is a literal monopoly on the tooling layer of the chip supply chain, with a 2-year order backlog and no credible competitor. As nations pour hundreds of billions into domestic chip production, every new fab needs ASML machines to function.

Cost Basis
$978.82
Entry Date
Oct 13, 2025
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Figma

FIG

Active Position

Figma sits at an inflection point in software: while Adobe built design tools for individuals, Figma reimagined them for teams. Real-time collaboration, browser-native access, and a developer handoff workflow that actually works created switching costs Adobe couldn't replicate—which is why they tried to acquire it for $20B. The failed acquisition confirmed the moat. Now Figma is expanding into AI-assisted design and slides, growing TAM while competitors play catch-up on the collaboration layer.

Cost Basis
$70.30
Entry Date
Oct 8, 2025
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Reddit

RDDT

Active Position

Reddit is one of the most visited sites globally with over 1.3 billion monthly users, yet the market still prices it like it's figuring out monetization. The real asset is the data: Reddit threads are the training ground for every major LLM, and licensing deals with Google and others are just starting. As AI companies need fresh, human-generated content to train models, Reddit's archive becomes increasingly valuable—and that revenue stream didn't exist two years ago.

Cost Basis
$201.43
Entry Date
Oct 2, 2025
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Alphabet

GOOGL

Active Position

Google is rebuilding search and YouTube with GenAI while keeping ad inventory scarce and pricing power intact. YouTube captured the shift from linear TV with billions of hours of watch time, a creator economy at scale, and measurable results traditional TV can't match. That flywheel funds Cloud and AI tooling bets while competitors struggle to finance their own AI buildouts.

Cost Basis
$191.36
Entry Date
Oct 2, 2025
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BYD Company LTD

BYDDY

Active Position

BYD is the world's largest EV maker by volume and a vertically integrated battery manufacturer. While Tesla gets the attention, BYD builds its own cells, chips, and drivetrains—controlling costs in a way competitors can't match. China's renewable energy infrastructure gives BYD structural cost advantages on both manufacturing and charging. The stock trades at a fraction of Tesla's multiple despite selling more cars.

Cost Basis
$13.85
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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VANECK Alternative Asset Manager ETF

GPZ

Active Position

The VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF provides liquid access to publicly traded alternative asset managers—firms like KKR, Apollo, and Blackstone—without the constraints of SAFEs, private placements, or lock-up periods. As private markets grow and institutional allocators increase alternatives exposure, the managers themselves capture recurring management fees and carried interest on an expanding asset base.

Cost Basis
$27.59
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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Baidu

BIDU

Active Position

Baidu runs China's dominant search engine and is building the country's leading autonomous driving platform, Apollo Go. China's renewable energy buildout—now producing more solar power than U.S. solar and nuclear combined—gives compute-heavy businesses like Baidu a structural cost advantage. Cheap abundant power plus a captive domestic market of 1.4 billion users creates a floor under the business that Western competitors don't have.

Cost Basis
$97.39
Entry Date
Sep 3, 2025
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CoreWeave

CRWV

Watchlist

Avoid CoreWeave. It's a short-term play built on hardware that depreciates fast. They loaded up on GPUs to capture current AI demand, but GPU rental prices have collapsed—H100 chips dropped from $5-6/hour to around 75 cents within a year—and newer architectures keep pushing performance per dollar higher. CoreWeave's core asset, a massive GPU fleet, may be largely obsolete in 5 years. When your entire business model depends on hardware that depreciates this quickly, you're betting against the pace of innovation.

Entry Date
Aug 11, 2025
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Enbridge

ENB

Watchlist

Enbridge offers current income through its MLP-like structure while everyone predicted that structure would change. It didn't. Predictable cash flows from pipelines and energy transportation remain durable, and the yield reprices upward as rates normalize. When consensus expects structural change and it doesn't materialize, you get mispriced income streams.

Entry Date
Aug 11, 2025
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Bitmine Immersion Technologies

BMNR

Watchlist

Bitmine owns a meaningful Ethereum stack and is steering toward running both Ethereum staking nodes and Bitcoin miners in immersion-cooled pods. Ethereum's proof-of-stake shift created staking yields, and as tokenization grows, Ethereum becomes preferred infrastructure. Chairman Tom Lee brings credibility and strategic vision. The dual-asset approach—staking ETH for yield while mining BTC for appreciation—diversifies crypto exposure at the infrastructure layer.

Entry Date
Aug 5, 2025
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Elbit Systems

ESLT

Watchlist

Elbit Systems builds the entire defense stack from sensors to platforms to command systems—vertical integration that most defense primes outsource. In a world where conflicts increasingly demand precision autonomous systems, electronic warfare, and AI-driven targeting, the company that controls the full pipeline from sensor to shooter has fewer dependencies and faster iteration cycles than competitors assembling from subcontractors.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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NextVision Stabilized Systems

NXSN.TA

Watchlist

NextVision specializes in stabilized imaging and sensor systems—the critical component that makes drones, surveillance, and targeting systems effective. As warfare shifts toward precision autonomous systems, the quality of stabilized sensors becomes the bottleneck. Every drone, vehicle, and platform that needs to see and aim accurately requires this technology, making NextVision an essential supplier across the defense ecosystem.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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Israel Defense Tech

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Israel punches above its weight in defense technology—autonomous systems, cybersecurity, electronic warfare, and precision munitions developed through decades of operational necessity. Israeli defense companies iterate faster than Western primes because they test in live environments and operate with shorter procurement cycles. As global defense budgets shift toward unmanned systems and AI-enabled warfare, Israel's defense tech ecosystem becomes a disproportionate beneficiary.

Entry Date
Jun 16, 2025
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Electricity

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Electric utilities sit at the core of AI infrastructure. Data centers require large amounts of power delivered through the grid, and as AI workloads multiply, the utilities providing that power become essential infrastructure plays. Regulated utilities offer predictable cash flows while benefiting from secular demand growth—a combination the market hasn't fully priced in.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Energy

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Energy is the constraint for AI. Compute-intensive workloads require massive power, and as AI scales, energy becomes the bottleneck. Data centers already consume as much electricity as entire cities, and demand is accelerating. The companies racing to build AI infrastructure are competing for limited energy capacity—those with access to cheap, abundant power gain a structural advantage that compounds over time.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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SK Hynix

000660.KS (Korea Exchange)

Watchlist

SK Hynix dominates High Bandwidth Memory, the specific chip NVIDIA needs for every AI GPU. While Micron and Samsung compete in commodity memory, SK Hynix locked in the HBM supply relationship with NVIDIA early and now produces the majority of HBM3E chips shipping in H100 and B200 systems. This isn't generic memory exposure—it's a direct toll on the AI buildout through the component that determines how fast models can train.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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NVIDIA

NVDA

Exit

This was one of my best learning experiences—the first time I touched the stove. I tried to predict short-term geopolitical events when Iran-Israel tensions escalated and there was talk of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which would cut 30% of the world's oil supply. I learned I'm not an oracle of the market, and short-term events—especially geopolitical ones—are nearly impossible to predict with any consistency. The better approach is focusing on long-term fundamentals: companies with durable competitive advantages, structural shifts in industries, and trends that play out over years, not weeks.

Cost Basis
$112.84
Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
Exit Price
$142.47
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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Micron Technology

MU

Watchlist

Micron is the only American pure-play memory company, and memory is becoming the bottleneck for AI workloads. As models scale, the ratio of memory to compute keeps rising—every GPU needs more DRAM and HBM to feed it. Micron benefits from CHIPS Act funding for its Idaho fab expansion, giving it a domestic manufacturing edge as supply chain security becomes a national priority. The cyclical memory downturn compressed valuations, but the structural demand shift from AI is rewriting the cycle.

Entry Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Vistra

VST

Exit

Vistra was collateral damage from the same geopolitical panic that caused me to sell NVIDIA and Vertiv. Nuclear and natural gas baseload power is exactly what AI data centers need, and Vistra owned that positioning. Selling a utility-like cash flow stream because of Middle East headlines was the wrong framework—energy infrastructure doesn't move on the same risk factors as growth tech.

Cost Basis
$136.95
Entry Date
Jan 27, 2025
Exit Price
$171.65
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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Vertiv

VRT

Exit

Sold during the Iran-Israel tension panic alongside NVIDIA. Vertiv's fundamentals were strong—power and cooling infrastructure for data centers is a multi-decade buildout—but I let short-term geopolitical fear override a long-term thesis. The lesson: infrastructure plays with recurring revenue deserve more patience than cyclical hardware bets.

Cost Basis
$103.70
Entry Date
Jan 27, 2025
Exit Price
$110.77
Exit Date
Jul 13, 2025
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Palo Alto Networks

PANW

Took Loss On

Tax-loss harvesting is a real tool. Holding a losing position out of hope isn't a strategy. The capital redeployed into other names more than covered the loss.

Cost Basis
$193.28
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
Exit Price
$190.61
Exit Date
Jun 13, 2025
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China Large Cap

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

China's tech sector trades at a structural discount to U.S. peers despite comparable scale and faster growth in key verticals like EVs, batteries, and renewable energy. Regulatory overhang and geopolitical risk keep Western capital underweight, which creates a persistent valuation gap. The bet is that Chinese tech earnings grow faster than the discount widens—and if sentiment ever normalizes, the re-rating is significant.

Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Amazon

AMZN

Active Position

Amazon runs the infrastructure layer of the internet through AWS, which generates the operating margin that funds every other bet. The retail business is a distribution moat that creates customer lock-in through Prime, while AWS captures the secular shift to cloud computing. Advertising is the fastest-growing segment—leveraging purchase intent data that Google and Meta can't match. The sum-of-parts valuation consistently undervalues the business because the market treats it as one entity instead of three distinct platforms.

Cost Basis
$197.63
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Invesco QQQ

QQQ

Active Position

QQQ gives broad exposure to the tech companies driving the AI shift—semiconductors, cloud, and software. Rather than trying to pick every winner in a generational technology transition, QQQ captures the rising tide across the Nasdaq-100. It's a core holding that ensures participation in the upside even when individual stock picks underperform.

Cost Basis
$505.18
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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IShares Bitcoin Trust ETF

IBIT

Active Position

Bitcoin is becoming programmable money for the AI age. As AI agents and autonomous systems proliferate, they need a monetary layer that's native to the internet—permissionless, programmable, and settled without intermediaries. IBIT gives clean institutional exposure without custody complexity. The halving cycle, spot ETF inflows, and growing sovereign interest create a structural supply/demand imbalance that plays out over years, not quarters.

Cost Basis
$56.61
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
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Broadcom

AVGO

Took Loss On

Sold at a loss to concentrate into NVIDIA. Broadcom's custom silicon business was strong, but I realized I was splitting conviction across two AI chip plays instead of sizing up the higher-conviction bet. Taking the loss was a tax benefit, and redeploying into NVIDIA simplified the portfolio. Sometimes the best move is fewer positions, not more.

Cost Basis
$186.78
Entry Date
Nov 22, 2024
Exit Price
$180.86
Exit Date
Mar 3, 2025
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Information Technology

Sector View
Positioning: Overweight

Information technology is the infrastructure layer for every other sector's growth. As AI reshapes enterprise software, cloud computing, and cybersecurity, the companies building and maintaining that infrastructure capture value regardless of which specific AI applications win. IT spending is becoming non-discretionary—companies that don't invest in their tech stack fall behind operationally, making the sector's revenue base more durable than the market prices in during downturns.

Entry Date
Nov 4, 2024
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